Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 44.998766 53.177484 62.195969 72.847292 85.050716 98.562033 114.619054
2024-10-06 33.712246 44.724568 58.084215 75.346785 96.908594 122.787107 156.013855
2024-10-13 25.625507 37.291937 52.551368 73.681228 101.843519 137.709880 186.400717
2024-10-20 22.993954 35.991091 54.016021 80.329626 117.151140 166.144437 235.408876
2024-10-27 17.922458 30.213791 48.295589 76.112125 116.932637 173.586584 256.833758
2024-11-03 15.843806 28.420151 47.847269 79.039020 126.599054 194.858238 298.252418
2024-11-10 14.424477 27.373680 48.275009 83.132916 138.100278 219.324888 345.622823
2024-11-17 13.094399 26.222571 48.312438 86.485745 148.585208 242.838157 392.932600
2024-11-24 11.462381 24.253506 46.704084 86.910443 154.373453 259.503759 430.873720
2024-12-01 9.653393 21.639382 43.619942 84.454963 155.164425 268.324098 457.144370
2024-12-08 8.525380 20.136802 42.286018 84.797442 160.478188 284.439100 495.517688
2024-12-15 7.693281 19.086812 41.633349 86.229069 167.659715 303.882911 540.127372
2024-12-22 6.139891 16.356652 37.667886 81.657489 164.893196 308.287815 563.346970
2024-12-29 5.485027 15.515311 37.376732 84.115804 175.158058 335.768883 627.313774
2025-01-05 4.564063 13.828853 35.052810 82.251788 177.198670 349.131177 668.237283
2025-01-12 4.463834 14.164299 37.134871 89.560359 197.261532 395.620536 769.082855
2025-01-19 3.570556 12.199234 33.733678 84.922580 193.577677 398.994421 794.339763
2025-01-26 3.280359 11.824647 33.966793 88.141178 205.805217 432.347638 875.048856
2025-02-02 3.086246 11.684606 34.742055 92.640689 221.002133 472.178852 969.684859
2025-02-09 2.867042 11.414872 35.147664 96.323693 234.768330 510.084506 1062.747892
2025-02-16 2.530421 10.681041 34.234650 96.790089 241.690715 535.130818 1133.075849
2025-02-23 2.119170 9.573122 32.126081 94.093138 241.448094 545.996673 1177.038732
2025-03-02 1.872155 8.969337 31.305029 94.469353 248.026434 570.844777 1249.116473